And that scarecrow costume? Also a bad decision.
8 04 2008In today’s Science section of the New York Times, John Tierney highlights research from economist M. Keith Chen that questions reliance on the free-choice paradigm in cognitive dissonance experiments. Chen argues that cognitive dissonance researchers fail to take into account the “Monty Hall Problem”: the introduction of new information into a decision-making process that changes the odds, implying a rational (rather than rationalized) decision.
On “Let’s Make a Deal,” Monty allowed contestants to select one of three doors. Behind one door was a car, behind a second was another less spectacular prize (am I wrong, or was this often Rice-A-Roni, the “San Francisco Treat”?), and behind a third door was an adorable but widely undesired goat. Once a contestant selected a door, Monty revealed the door with the goat. If the contestant did not originally select the door with the goat, the contestant was permitted to change his/her original door selection. Tierney (and Chen) argue that such a change is rational: the odds that the original door choice was correct were only 1 in 3 on average, while the odds that the original choice was wrong were 2 in 3. Tierney offers a Monty Hall game to illustrate the point.
The article also describes the flaw at work in experiments in which monkeys are allowed to play with M&Ms until their preferred top 3 colors are assessed: red, blue, and green. Among these three colors, monkeys were first presented with, say, red and blue candies. If the monkey chose red, it was then presented with blue and green candies, and two-thirds of the time chose green, leading researchers to conclude that the monkeys rationalized their original choice of red over blue. However, the Monty Hall problem indicates that researchers failed to take into account new information that suggested that the preferences among the three colors, though seemingly comparable, were still minute — maybe the monkeys did like red and green better than blue, or even green best of all. Moreover, the selection of red over blue changed the odds — if the monkey prefers red to blue, two of the remaining three possibilities suggest a preference of green over blue as well.
Psychologists Daniel Gilbert and Laurie Santos, when presented with Chen’s insight, agreed that he was correct, but pointed out that much of the research has moved beyond the types of experiments that have the “Monty Hall problem.” But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t waste at least a few minutes this morning playing “Let’s Make a Deal,” LeechBlock be damned.
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